Model Metrics

Straight-up, against-the-spread and totals accuracy, pooled across every eligible game. Confidence calibration by pick type lives at the bottom of the Matchup Board.

Research notice This week's predictions come from an experimental research model, tracked live for transparency. 2025 results are a retrospective replay, not a live record: each week was scored from earlier games only, then graded against the closing line. 2026 picks are made before kickoff, from a model still running on a smaller set of inputs than prior seasons had — recent quarterback and offensive-line form, pass-rush pressure, and explosive-play rates are being rebuilt for the current season game by game. Early 2026 confidence numbers should be read with that in mind. Moneyline probabilities also lean mainly on the betting market's own price, since testing showed our model's own estimates were overconfident on their own and didn't improve on the market by themselves. The 2025 replay was rebuilt after we corrected a week 1 odds input; the records shown here (162-93 moneyline, 126-114 against the spread, 133-118 totals, weeks 2 to 18) replace earlier figures of 160-95, 124-117 and 129-122.

Denominators: pushes and ties are excluded from ATS, Totals and ML rates. Season rings are pooled (sum of correct picks ÷ sum of eligible games), not an unweighted average of weekly rates. Week 1 is included: its picks are graded on the model's confidence percentages, without bucket or stake sizing.

Postseason

Postseason weeks have far fewer games (1–6) than a regular-season week, so a single result can swing these numbers dramatically. Read them as a separate, smaller sample — not as directly comparable to the regular-season numbers above.